Champaign, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

113
FXUS63 KILX 060800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
200 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light freezing rain or sleet is possible (10-25%
  chance) northeast of a Lacon to Paris line between 6 and 9am
  this morning.

- Northwest winds will gust up to 35 mph beginning mid morning
  and continuing into the afternoon.

- After a seasonably cold Saturday, temperatures will warm to
  above normal early next week. On Tuesday, the warmest day, there
  is a 60-80% chance temperatures climb above 50 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

***** SLIGHT CHANCE AM MIXED PRECIP, BREEZY TODAY *****

At 2am, a warm front was draped north-south across central IL, with
westerly winds advecting a milder airmass into the region from Iowa
and Missouri. A positively-tilted shortwave trough was generating
snow across east-central and northeast Wisconsin, with a small area
of scattered precip (which ASOS/AWOS are reporting as "unknown")
further west, in the warm advection wing immediately ahead of the
cold front. The southwestern extent of this precip is progged to
graze or narrowly miss our northeast counties around sunrise, with
HREF generally suggesting the highest chances (20-35%) in northeast
IL and west-central IN but the REFS` maximum precip chances (15-25%)
along roughly I-74. NAM and RRFS forecast soundings for Danville
show a saturated, above-freezing warm nose just a few hundred feet
off the surface, while the RAP and HRRR in contrast don`t quite
depict saturation. In either case, freezing rain/sprinkles would be
the most likely p-type, though can`t rule out graupel/ice pellets
given (1) convective-looking appearance of this upstream activity on
radar, (2) lack of low ceilings, and (3) a secondary saturated zone
depicted higher-up (and between 0 and -10 degC) on forecast
soundings. From roughly 6-9am, we maintain 10-25% chances for both
sleet and freezing rain north of a Lacon to Paris line, in line with
blended highres (HREF/REFS) guidance. We`ll continue to monitor
upstream observations for any sign of the more troublesome freezing
rain p-type, and will issue a Winter Weather Advisory if necessary
for this yet low probability (but potentially high-impact) weather,
which could result in a slippery morning commute for some.

Despite the cool advection behind the cold front today, temperatures
will remain seasonable with afternoon highs anywhere from the mid
30s to low 40s - warmest in west-central IL. However, northwest
winds gusting 30-35 mph will make it feel more like it`s in the 20s
out there. A sharper drop in temperatures will accompany the
secondary cold front late this evening, with temperatures dropping
into the single digits in many locations by sunrise tomorrow morning
- though fortunately winds will go light by then as surface high
pressure settles south into the area.

***** SEASONABLY COLD TOMORROW, TURNING MILD NEXT WEEK *****

HREF/REFS mean 850mb temperatures drop to anywhere from -7 to -11
degC (coldest northeast) over central IL early tomorrow morning, but
then begin to slowly warm the region by evening as high pressure
shifts east into the Ohio Valley allowing low level return flow.
Most locations will top out in the 20s tomorrow, though areas west
of I-55 stand a 30-60% chance of hitting 30 with any breaks in cloud
cover. As upper level ridging over the Plains expands eastward into
the region, temperatures warm on Sunday, especially across west-
central IL where forecast highs are in the mid to upper 40s. On
Monday, lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains will accompany both a
northern and southern stream shortwave trough, with the northern low
reaching our area sometime on Tuesday. LREF mean brings 850mb
temperatures to 9-10 degC over our area ahead of that low Monday
night into Tuesday, and while surface heating will depend on cloud
cover NBM brings temperatures solidly into the 50s west of I-55
Monday and area-wide by Tuesday, with even a 30-50% chance of
reaching 60 southwest of a Macomb to Lincoln to Effingham line on
Tuesday. Behind that low, temperatures will turn cooler for the
second half of the work week, with daily highs generally in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

***** SHOWERS MID WEEK *****

The Tuesday system will bring a 40-60% chance for rain, and possibly
(10-20% chance) a couple thunderstorms depending on moisture return
ahead of the low, which will likely be limited by the southern
stream system crossing the Deep South. Still, GEFS and EPS ensemble
means bring PWATs to upwards of 0.75", which is above the 90th
percentile of raob climatology for February 10th. For what it`s
worth, NBM/LREF offer around a 10-20% chance for more than a half
inch of rain. While this system will bring our best opportunity for
rain, one/more additional disturbances could offer additional precip
chances later in the week. Due to timing and placement differences
among LREF ensemble members, NBM has painted continuous 15-30% PoPs
in the forecast Wednesday through Friday.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A disturbance passing through the Great Lakes will bring light
precipitation as far southwest as the I-74 corridor Friday
morning. Thermal profiles support a couple hours of scattered
light freezing rain, particularly at KBMI-KCMI, so continued a
PROB30 group for this around 11Z-15Z. Meanwhile, WNW winds around
45 kts at 2000 ft AGL will produce low level wind shear. After
the potential precipitation, a cold front will move through the
area, bringing MVFR cigs by around 14Z. These clouds are expected
to lift and thin, becoming VFR by 22Z-00Z. Winds SW 5-10 kts
shifting to WSW by 10Z. Winds becoming NW 12-18 kts with gusts
around 25 kts by 15Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$